I saw this L.A. Times article on teenage drivers referenced on Bruce Schneier’s excellent security blog. Essentially, California passed laws that heavily restricted 16 and 17 year old drivers, hoping to save lives. While statistics do show the deaths went down in that age category, there was a commensurate increase in fatalities in 18 and 19 year olds. One way of interpreting that information is that the gains from the restrictions weren’t eliminating fatalities, only deferring it. Sounds like the policymakers have the behaviors targeted well, they just need to find better means to change them, rather than delay them for 2 years.